If negotiations on a multilateral trade agreement fail, many countries will instead negotiate bilateral treaties. However, new agreements often lead to competing agreements between other countries, eliminating the advantages offered by the free trade agreement (FTA) between the two home countries. Bilateral agreements increase trade between the two countries. They open markets for thriving industries. When businesses benefit, they create jobs. Taking into account the higher (indirect) effects of trade flows is crucial to account for the potential existence of a strong interdependence in production between industries that are not direct suppliers or consumers of each other, but are nevertheless members of the same supply chain. These dependencies occur, for example. B, when two industries have the same trading partner j, i.e. if industries i and k are connected by a path of length 2.
In particular, in a scenario where j buys goods (inputs) at k and sells goods at i, node i could be affected by a supply bottleneck of k, which is passed on via j [34-36]. To further evaluate the effects of these higher-order dependencies, we study the role of the maximum path length αmax in the definition of TI. The nodes that represent the final demand play the role of wells in the network of economic commodity flows, which leads to a rapid saturation of the TIout with an increase in the αmax. In contrast, these nodes become sources of cash flow where no convergent TIin behavior is observed. This is shown in Figure 6, which shows the distributions of TIout and TIin for different values of αmax. All pairs of countries that traded a BTA during the study period are taken into account here. It turns out that TIin values for economically reasonable path lengths do not converge. In addition, we observe in Figure 7 that the BTA Π impact indices in country inputs show a trend towards smaller values with an increase in αmax. Figures 7A,B show the BTA impact indices of inputs Π in all countries for αmax = 1 (αmax = 10). A trend towards lower values can be observed, for example, in Europe, Australia, Algeria and Central America.